Swimcloud

Predicted Team Scores

It is travel day for the NCAA Championships and with swimming teams (and basketball teams) arriving in the Circle City, predictions abound.  On paper, Michigan looks formidable and the prohibitive favorite, but much of that will rest with how much rest some of the Pac 10 and SEC teams enjoyed at their respective conference meets.

To get a better indicator, Dr. Price Fishback, the Thomas R. Brown Professor of Economics at the University of Arizona took at closer look at the Psyche Sheet using swimmers best times over a two-year period to predict the results.  They show the Wolverines are formidable on more than just paper.  

Still, the meet won't be swum on paper and the below totals don't account for diving, and the best-times list doesn't necessarily account for those freshman without previous best yard times (i.e. foreign).  Other variables include the rate of improvement which could change dramatically due to the new qualifying rules.  Add in a relay DQ (just ask USC's women) or a bout of the norovirus and anything can happen, but from a numbers standpoint, here's a look at this weekend.

Psyche Sheet Scored - Best Times


School Day One Day Two Day Three Total
1 Michigan 158 206 113 477
2 California 85 153 86 324
3 Florida 87 107 97 291
4 Southern Cal 95 95 72 262
5 Auburn 106 65 86 257
6 Arizona 56 106 65 227
7 Stanford 54 67 87 208
8 Indiana 46 96 43 185
9 Georgia 65 40 55 160
10 Texas 22 79 52 153
11 Florida State 70 35 19 124
12 Ohio State 39 54 19 112
13 Tennessee 16 67 20 103
14 NC State 56 8 33 97
15 Wisconsin 15 23 29 67
16 Louisville 0 23 32 55
17 Penn State 0 38 13 51
18 Virginia Tech 30 18 0 48
19 Harvard 7 9 29 45
20 Texas A&M 21 8 12 41
21 Minnnesota 16 0 19 35
22 Missouri 0 18 15 33
23 Virginia 0 22 7 29
24 Brown 0 15 11 26
25 Purdue 19 0 0 19
26 SMU 10 0 8 18
27 North Carolina 0 5 9 14
28 Notre Dame 0 13 1 14
29 South Carolina 9 0 5 14
30 Dartmouth 1 0 12 13
31 EMU 0 0 12 12
32 Louisiana State 0 3 7 10
33 Princeton 0 0 10 10
34 Michigan State 0 9 0 9
35 Arizona State 0 0 6 6
36 North Carolina 2 4 0 6
37 UNLV 0 6 0 6
38 Wyoming 0 3 0 3
39 Utah 0 0 1 1
Psyche Sheet Scored - Current Season Times


School Day One Day Two Day Three Total
1 Michigan 166 218 126 510
2 Florida 77 107 112 296
3 California 72 144 74 290
4 Auburn 112 70 87 269
5 Southern Cal 98 88 73 259
6 Arizona 53 105 65 223
7 Indiana 55 100 48 203
8 Stanford 47 59 79 185
9 Texas 27 68 56 151
10 Florida State 76 37 22 135
11 Georgia 61 40 28 129
12 Tennessee 19 71 23 113
13 Ohio State 32 54 15 101
14 NC State 52 8 35 95
15 Louisville 0 26 33 59
16 Wisconsin 16 23 17 56
17 Penn State 0 42 13 55
18 Virginia Tech 30 18 1 49
19 Harvard 10 9 29 48
20 Texas A&M 19 8 13 40
21 Minnnesota 16 0 19 35
22 Virginia 0 22 13 35
23 Missouri 0 18 15 33
24 Brown 0 16 12 28
25 North Carolina 2 10 11 23
26 Purdue 20 0 1 21
27 SMU 10 0 9 19
28 South Carolina 12 0 7 19
29 Dartmouth 3 0 12 15
30 EMU 0 0 12 12
31 Notre Dame 0 11 1 12
32 Michigan State 0 9 2 11
33 Louisiana State 0 3 7 10
34 Princeton 0 0 10 10
35 UNLV 0 6 0 6
36 Wyoming 0 4 0 4
37 Arizona State 0 0 3 3
38 Utah 0 0 2 2
39 Alabama 0 1 0 1

Data courtesy Dr. Price Fishback, the Thomas R. Brown Professor of Economics at the University of Arizona

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